CO129-502-6 China- general situation 7-1-1927 - 3-3-1927 — Page 205

or prema tarely to treat Southern Chian as an independent

state.

226

Respect for international law forbids the first;

respect for Chinese self-determination forbids the second.

5. But while diplomatically discussing these problems with

Canton, things have not been going well in regions over which

the Cantonese Government claim supremacy; and it may well

be, as many think, that injury to Great Britain rather than the

interests or the honour of China lie at the root of the policy

which Southern China is now pursuing.

They

6. However this may be, it seems fairly clear that if this

really were the object of those who control the southern

administration, they would do exactly what they are doing.

would make strong professions of their desire to maintain order

and protect foreigners, they would in fact leave matters to the

mob, knowing quite well that if foreigners, when attacked, were

left to protect themselves the very least that could happen would be "regrettable incidents," which could easily be used to

set all China in a blaze.

77.

In the face of such a calamity, the Treaty Powers would, so

far as I can see, be quite helpless, If the South were really

united, if they were led with even moderate efficiency, if they

had behind them the excited passions of a great people, it is

absurd to suppose that the scattered settlements and the not less

scattered policy of the Treaty Powers could offer any effective

resistance. The most they could be would be to shoot, in

self defence, a sufficient number of Chinaren to make the position

of foreigners in China practically impossible.

8

From all this I conclude that if the dominant policy of the South is at the moment dictated by the Soviets, they have got

the easiest game in the world to play. It would consist in each

case of three moves:

2.

3..

The promise to keep order.

The encouragement of an anti-foreign mob to commit

dis-order.

The presentation to the foreign authorities of

the alternatives of either resisting outrage by the shedding of blood, or the de facto surrender of

-2,-M